Research blog
Why alarm correlation needs a causal model, not a time window
Rule engines group alarms by closeness in time and space. We look at what that misses when background noise rises, and what a self-exciting model does differently.
Raincurve Research · Sep 2026What trading desks can teach a NOC about rollout pacing
Optimal execution and network remediation share the same trade-off: move fast and pay in churn, move slowly and pay in exposure.
Raincurve Research · Sep 2026Runbooks are not proofs: checking actions against live state
Most unsafe maintenance actions look safe in isolation. Here is why the check has to see in-flight work and lost backup paths.
Raincurve Research · Sep 2026Inside Curve-1: from raw telemetry to ranked hypotheses
A walkthrough of the four stages that turn fragmented operational signals into an explainable root-cause ranking.
Raincurve Research · Sep 2026Turning Alarm Floods into Incidents with Hawkes Processes
Topology-aware Hawkes models find the root-cause device for 75% of simulated incidents vs 42% for tuned rule-based correlation, with no labels.
Raincurve Research · 2026How Fast Should a Network Fix Roll Out? Almgren-Chriss for Operations
Optimal-execution pacing from trading, adapted to network rollouts. A hard churn limit cuts expected damage 43% vs plain Almgren-Chriss.
Raincurve Research · 2026Proving a Network Action Is Safe Before It Runs
Runbook checks approved 98% of unsafe actions. Exact graph methods made zero errors and check 14,680 devices in 0.19 s.
Raincurve Research · 2026Curve-1: A Reasoning Architecture for Cross-Layer Infrastructure Intelligence
A staged reasoning pipeline that converts fragmented operational telemetry into ranked, explainable root-cause hypotheses in near real time.
Raincurve Research · 2026Compact Contracts: Compressing Telemetry for Cross-Layer Reasoning
A compression layer that preserves cross-layer diagnostic context while reducing raw MELT telemetry volume by roughly 6,000×.
Raincurve Research · 2026Firecracker Sandboxing for Secure Execution
A microVM and copy-on-write snapshotting model for safely executing reasoning and remediation workloads inside customer infrastructure.
Raincurve Research · 2026